HomeDaily ResultsMegadroid Results: Thur 25th Nov 2010


Megadroid Results: Thur 25th Nov 2010 — 31 Comments

  1. Hi Steve,

    You’re correct. Excuse my mistake.

    As I write this I still have a S1 long open on several accounts, including the Alpari Classic account. My entry 1,3347. Currently about 13 pips down. The long on the Alpari mini account has already closed. I’ll update the results as they close.

    No trades on the InterbankFx accounts again. The performance at that broker has really deteriorated over the past few months.

  2. IamFX 25/11/2010

    21:00:57 S1 Buy 1.33548 -> 21:14:41 1.33633 8.5 pips
    22:58:16 S1 Buy 1.33461 -> 23:12:58 1.33541 8.0 pips

    And with Recovery Mode = True, really recovering quickly the great loss of the last week.

  3. Unfortunately I still have a S1 long open on 4 accounts – Alpari Classic, GO, Axitrader, and FXDD. Currently about 35 pips down.

    All the trades on MB, Alpari Micro, Alpari LATE, and FxPro have closed.

  4. OMG, my FxOpen conservative account hit the SL while it still was in recovery mode (-64 pips). With the previous SL, it lost 8 months of winnings 🙁

  5. Hi Almandine,

    Sorry to here about the loss.

    It has been a difficult month. I’ve also experienced widely varying performance across my default megadroid accounts in November (see HERE). The worst performers were about -65 pips for the month, while the best performer was +27 pips (FxPro), with a few around break even. On average I was 27 pips down, and if I excluded the Alpari Late settings account, I was down by an average of about 20 pips for the month. Not a good result, but recoverable in December I guess. Trading multiple accounts was an advantage in November, because several of the stops only occurred on a few of the 11 accounts.

  6. Of course, trading multiple accounts means diversify risks…
    I don’t understand well why that disparity in data between several brokers.

  7. There was definitely more disparity this month than usual.

    Often just a slightly worse fill price can be the difference between a megadroid trade closing near break even or hitting a full stop. A good example of that today was what happened on my Alpari accounts. The mini account got a slightly better fill and closed near break even, whereas the classic account got a full stop. Bad luck I guess.

  8. Richard my first long closed with a profit, but the second closed with a slight loss.

    Nov 25 22:01 Buy 1.33533 -> 1.33634

    23:58 Buy 1.33470 -> 1.33463

  9. Richard I have different result than you.
    Interbankfx: buy 1.3347, SL: 1.3284, -63 pips
    FXDD: buy 1.3353, close: 1.3363, +10 pips
    buy 1.3345, close: 1.3357, +12 pips.

    Bascially, My interbankfx had two big lost this month already. Yesterday was holiday, I was thinking to stop the robot, but I didn’t.

  10. I think this time i had some luck !

    On my Alpari UK LIVE account, I put the RiskLevel to 0.1 instead of 0.2 because I was in recovery Mode and made a + 10 pips profit with a very early trade (21h UMT – 22h in France).

    Then I stopped the robot.

    I let it work in a demo Tadawulfx just to see what could happen. It quickly open a trade at 22h43 and the result was about -135 pips !!

    Ouch !!!

  11. Matt/Richard,

    My IBFX also had two losses this month. In fact the trade was the same as Matt’s with the same stop loss. Strange Richard’s account did not make that trade.

  12. Hi Matt,

    There’s been lots of variability recently, and that’s another example I guess. Luckily I missed the InterbankFx loss, but I got a loss on FXDD yesterday

    This month I’ve had one loss on InterbankFx and one loss on FXDD. Overall I’m -1 pip for the month on FXDD, and -27 and -36 pips on my 2 InterbankFx account. (see Monthly Results).

  13. Hi Ling,

    I trade both on an InterbankFx US account, and an InterbankFx Australia account. Neither of them got a trade yesterday. I checked the logs, and it looks like high spreads were blocking the trades.

    But if this was the case, I’m not sure why you got a trade and I didn’t.

    One possible explanation is that I’m on a different InterbankFx trade server. Sometimes there’s a subtle difference in price feed and order execution.

    My US account uses this server: “IBFX-MT4 Mini-4”
    My Australia account uses this server: “IBFXAU-MT4-IM01”

  14. Dear Richard, may I ask you why you don’t use the recovery mode in order to recover more rapidly from a loose? Do you think that 2 looses in a raw could often occurred if we look to the back test?
    Other question, do you also use others EA in live?
    Albatore who love your site!

  15. albatore, see my previous post above. Recovery mode is very risky, even on a conservative (S1 trades only) account.

    Not only the second trade will be doubled, but all of the following trades after a loss, until the loss is recovered.

  16. Hi albatore,

    I don’t use Recovery Mode, because it’s based on the premise that there’ll be a higher probability of a win after a few losing trades. To me each and every trade has the same probability of winning or losing i.e. they’re independent. Therefore I can’t see the logic behind doubling the lots size and risk after a few losing trades.

  17. Hi Armin,

    I often see small differences like that between my Alpari accounts.. Usually they average themselves out over time.

    The good news was that you avoided a large loss that I got on my Alpari Classic account.

  18. Thanks for your answers 🙂
    I have found on myfxbook some real account since 2009 and it’s true that it already happened to have 2 consecutives looses in a row…
    Richard don’t you use myfxbook for your account?
    And regarding my question if you also trade with others EA ?

  19. Hi albatore,

    Those websites don’t give me the information I need. I need to be able to directly compare the pip performance across various accounts. I do this so I can work out which accounts to trade more on, and which accounts I should trade less on. I make frequent adjustments to the lot size based on broker performance, and thereby optimize my returns. That’s why I record the results. I’ve been doing this since April 2009. I used to just do it on a spreadsheet, but I decided to post the numbers on a blog a few months ago. So this data is a decision making tool I personally use for my trading.

    Other EA’s/Trading

    I used to trade FAP Turbo until late last year. I stopped because it was no longer profitable for me. It did do very well from Jan to Aug 2009 though, but then the strategy struggled. I have used some custom EA’s in the past, but no longer use them because of changing market conditions. So at this stage Megadroid is the only EA I use on my live trading accounts. I’m always looking into others, but I’ve found none that are acceptable to me in terms of risk-reward.

    I also trade other manual strategies on spot forex, but more of my trading recently is focused on US stocks (small caps for short term, and larger caps for long term), and futures (mostly currency futures and index futures).

  20. Richard,

    Considering the variability in returns with MD across brokers, what is your opinion of its long term future performance? I am concerned on a few issues:

    1. The official website the EA shows performance in back test only. Even 2009-2010 are back tests.
    2. The EA is highly susceptible to broker manipulation.
    3. High risk is required for good returns, but lowered risk levels at US brokers makes this harder to do, especially if you use recovery mode.

    Another thought. The chances of a losing trade are about 1 in 12, and the chances of two loses in a row are about 1 in 150, so I think recovery mode is reasonable although a risk/reward analysis shows that one should just trade with double the trade size all the time and forgo recovery.

  21. Hi dr-zeus

    Thanks for those comments. You’ve touched on some important points.

    1. Official Website Performance

    I’ve never really followed the Megadroid performance on the official website. I don’t know what broker they use, whether it’s live, or what settings they use. I wouldn’t use results there as a benchmark.

    2. EA is highly susceptible to broker manipulation

    This has always been the case with Megadroid, and that’s the reason why I trade at multiple brokers and compare the results, and trade more at the better performing ones. I’ve seen some amazing discrepancies in performance between brokers since I started in April 2009. It’s absolutely crucial you get the broker selection right, and change quickly if a broker goes bad.

    I don’t think this susceptibility is just limited to Megadroid either. Forex is an artificial market IMO. All MT4 brokers (regardless of what they say), are Market Makers. That’s not meant to be derogatory, but a comment on how they operate. They primarily match orders against each other on their internal system, and try to match order fills somewhere around the interbank rate. It’s not a real market. They have the ability to “tweak” their system, to skew things in their favor (i.e. by delaying orders, increasing slippage) however if they do this excessively they’ll lose customers and profit. On the other-hand if they give perfect fills all the time, they’ll probably lose as well. So it’s a balance for them.

    3. High risk (leverage?) is required for good returns

    In forex it’s commonplace to leverage an account to the absolute maximum and see what % gains you can achieve on an account over a few months or a year. With lower leverage it’s harder to achieve high % gains in an account balance.

    My approach is a bit different. I focus on cash flow (i.e. dollars per month) rather than on individual account % gains. I’m not so fussed about individual account gains in percentage terms. I trade fixed lots, and aim for a certain dollar profit each month, and just make sure I have enough cash in the account to open the order size I want to trade. I limit how much I trade to level where I’m comfortable with the risk. The only difference with the US accounts now, is that I have to have more cash in the account to trade the order size I want because of the lower account leverage. So not much has changed for me. I still trade a total of 250k lot, and so my returns are the same dollar wise.

    4. Recovery Mode

    The way I see it, every Megadroid trade has the same probability of winning (or losing) i.e. they’re independent. So if you double the lot size after a few losses, you’re increasing the risk. You might be lucky and recover quicker, but if you suffer a loss it’ll take longer to recover, and has the potential to margin call the account.

  22. Hello again!
    Very interesting site!

    1. Hi dr-zeus

    How did you calculate the chances of a losing trade and the chances of two loses in a row?

    2. Hi Richard

    I have a live account (with Megadroid 1.3 running) on FxPro on a VPS and today I noticed that all the history of the account had disappered! And the balance is not the same!
    Did you ever experienced such a problem? How can I have back the history?

    Thank you!

  23. andrei,

    Sorry for the late reply, I hope you get this.

    The chance of any single trade being a loser is 1 in 12 to 1 in 13. To determine the chance of two consecutive trades being losers, we multiply 1/12 by 1/12 which is 1 in 144. I rounded up to 1 in 150 since it’s between 144 and 169 (13×13).

    That works out to once every two years or so, by the way. Looking at the MD backtests, that seems to be accurate. Once every 25 years we should expect three losers in a row. That would be an account killer.

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