HomeDaily ResultsMegadroid Results: Mon 2nd Jan 2012


Megadroid Results: Mon 2nd Jan 2012 — 35 Comments

  1. Hi Richard,

    So you have an order on ur accounts as well ? I got one on Axi at 1.29346 and currently down 33 pips. I see you have only 1 trade on ur results ??

  2. Well correct, Richard, 6 sept if I see your log… and with RSM @true. Actually it’s an imressive and nice count I think!!

    Since 1 dec. I started trading MD live and was just ended in positive every trade last month. With one trade just lucky to breakeven (it has to be said!!) With this last trade. I lost my profit pips from last month… and some more as everyone I guess 🙁

    I do not know what to do right know…enabling the recover mode or not? What’s your opinion at revocery mode?!

  3. Hi Peter,

    Today’s loss doesn’t really change anything for me. Losses will always happen. Most of the large losses last year were between 54 and 90 pips.

    I just stay consistent, and have a 6 to 12 month outlook. My aim is to be profitable for the year.

    I don’t use recovery mode.

  4. i’m going to turned off the megadroid this week to see what gonna happen, although maybe, you should be thinking not use megadroid this week. am i right richard?

  5. I agree with Richard, I do not agree of recovery mode as it will increase the risk if it run 2 lose trades in a row like the one as per their MyFXBook.

  6. I really don’t think recovery mode is a good idea.

    When you think about it, recovery mode assumes that the probability of a winning trade after a few consecutive losses, is higher. But this isn’t the case. Each trade has the same probability of winning or losing i.e. they’re independent.

    So, if you double the lot size after a few losing trades, you’re just doubling the risk. Now you may be lucky and get a win with double profit, but you could just as easily get a another large loss that would be double the size it would normally be and that would have a devastating impact on your account balance, and be very hard to recover from. SO, it can be very risky.

    It’s analogous to a trader doubling the amount he or she trades after a few losing trades- a common mistake, that we’ve probably all made at one time.

    The right approach in my view, is to treat each an every trade as an independent entity, and stay consistent. Eventually the odds will work in your favour. That’s why I trade a fixed lot size, and have a 6-12 month outlook. I know I’m going to have some large losing trades, and several losing months each year, but if I’m consistent there’s a good chance I’ll be profitable over the year.

  7. Hi Richard,

    You’re correct that each trade has the same probability. So in that case you’re absolute correct. In that light RM is definitly not a good option!

    If you think of the winning rate of MD 95% or so. Then there is a bigger probability that the next trade is a winner. That’s just statistics. In that light RM will be acceptable and can be a good option. But oke there is absoulte no garanty that a lose will followed by a winner…That’s also statistics 😉

    In my opinion it’s just how you look to it…

    For now I disabled the RM because of the following:
    -I’m just started to trade MD and at this time I’m in minus with this last trade) It wouldn’t be wise to double the risk at this moment, because of the devastating impact if it goes the wrong direction!!
    -Greed is a bad thing … so a slow recover would be more consistent!!

    p.s: If I had a lost and was still in profit than it would, for me, a different story. But oke…then I’m willing to take the risk, I quess…:S

    Thanks for your opinion!

    Regards, Peter

  8. Hi Richard,

    May i know normally what time do the trade happen?
    Due to the wrong time, i dun normally get to see mega working.

    Please let me know the GMT too.

    Thank you,

  9. I don’t think MD’s wining rate was 95% last year. That’s what they claim, but from my statistic, it was around 80% wining trade, and loosin trades were much bigger than winners.

    Overall 2011 was even for me on FinFx. Hope 2012 would be much better.

  10. Thanks god the bot was disabled for me this time! I’m going to sit tight and wait this week and i’ll run the bot again starting from next week.

  11. The average winning rate might be 90 or 95%…but trading with the RM immediately after a loss, which means not necessarily waiting for the right moment, would the winning rate then still be 90 or 95%???

  12. Hi Cyril,

    What do you exactly mean by -waiting for the right moment-? Normally, the bot should run continously except during Christmas/New Year period. If you’ve the remote safety option on, the bot will be automatically disabled when the market conditions looks “dangerous”. So, basically there should be no right moment.

  13. I did the math from Richard’s 2011 average results

    2011 PIPS $
    January 34.5 862.5
    February-19.3 -482.5
    March 59.1 1477.5
    April 30.9 772.5
    May 44.3 1107.5
    June -38.4 -960
    July -43.3 -1082.5
    August -28.2 -705
    September18.1 452.5
    October 116 2900
    November50.3 1257.5
    December7.8 195
    Total 231.8 5795$

  14. Hi JohnMalko,
    If I’m right, after a loss, the RM puts systematically and immediately a new order without necessarily waiting for the ideal market circumstances…

  15. Hi albatore,

    That’s about right.

    2011 was actually a pretty difficult year for Megadroid, even though I was positive overall.

    At one point during my June-August loss period, I was down for the year, but luckily September to November were very profitable. I guess my advantage was I traded a consistent lot size throughout this period.

    I had 4 loss months in 2011.

    August would have been profitable for me, had I enabled RSM at the start of the month.

    It was definitely a rocky year. Hopefully 2012 is a bit better.

  16. Just on the “Win Rate”…

    In general, when you’re assessing the profitability of any strategy, you need to factor in:

    1) The % Win – Rate


    2) The Risk-Reward ratio – i.e. the size of the losing trades relative to the winning trades.

    So Megadroid’s high win rate (80-90%) only tell’s half the story in my view, because Megadroid’s Risk Reward is actually quite high. i.e. the winners are 1-15 pips, and the losers can be 45 to 90 pips

    Scalpers like Megadroid typically have a high win-rate and a high risk-reward. Ultimately the profitability of a such a system depends on whether the more frequent small winners generate enough profit to exceed the size of the less frequent large losing trades. That’s the fine balance we’re dealing with. That’s why it’s important not to get over-confident by a 1-2 month run of small winning trades.

  17. Cyril:

    > This means only a 2% annual return on the total investment?

    What Albatore means is that the lot size was 250k, or 2.5 standard lots (he wasn’t referring to the initial account balance).

    Hope this helps!


  18. > If I’m right, after a loss, the RM puts systematically and immediately a new order without necessarily waiting for the ideal market circumstances…
    No, you’re wrong.

    Regarding RecoveryMode:
    This system is included to the Megadroid EA because on the backtest it makes more profit. And this is the only reason, I think.

  19. Hi Daniel,

    I don’t use recovery mode either. In my view every trade has the same probability of winning or losing, so doubling up after a few consecutive losing trades just doubles the risk.

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