HomeDaily ResultsMegadroid Results: Wed 1st Feb 2012


Megadroid Results: Wed 1st Feb 2012 — 14 Comments

  1. Out of curiosity I took a look at the big MD losses in 2011 and the one loss in January. I wanted to see if there were any patterns. Not that the patterns would be predictive but they could be helpful.

    1.) 5 of the 10 losses took place on Tuesdays.
    – On 2 of those Tuesdays we had the FOMC and Fed Funds Rate red folder
    news earlier in the day
    – On a third Tuesday we had the ISM news and an FOMC member spoke
    – On the 4th Tuesday we had core retail sales news
    – The 5th loss on a Tuesday was on Dec 20, 2011. I think this day
    fell into a No Trade Zone because of the holidays. I had my EAs
    turned off because of the lack of liquidity

    2.) The loss on Jan 2, 2012 was also in what I would also consider a No
    Trade Zone. First because of the holidays. And secondly it was a
    bank holiday in almost all the major markets.

    3.) The loss on June 22, 2011 was on a Wednesday and we had the FOMC, Fed
    Fund Rate announcement and an FOMC press conference.

    4.) The loss on Wed July 13, 2011 occurred after the late in the day
    announcement by Moody’s of the possible reduction in the US bond rating

    5.) And the loss on Monday June 20, 2011 had no major news announcements.

    I think it might make sense to reduce risk or lot size on FOMC days. Also perhaps turn aggressive off. I think someone else noticed that some of the losses were S2 trades although I didn’t have time to go back and check that.
    Happy trading!

  2. Hi Sandy,
    thanks for the analysis. Would the losses on FOMC days have been prevented by the RSM? I would have thought RSM would have triggered a “too risky” no trade day.

  3. Hi Aspro. I think several have said that RSM has saved them from bad trades. Not sure it was on FOMC days but I’ll give you the dates and if you want you can look up the discussion here for each day. I know 1 or 2 have said they reduce risk on FOMC day.

    Also I just realized I repeated 1 day. So there were only 9 bad trades and there is 1 less trade on FOMC tuesday.

    Here are the dates I have: Feb 15 2011, June 20 2011, June 22 2011, July 13 2011, Aug 9 2011, Sept 6 2011, Dec 20 2011, Jan 2 2012


  4. Hi Sandy,

    That’s a very good summary.

    It seems to me that RSM always disables trades on FOMC days, and sometimes 1 or 2 other trade days during the month. I’m not sure of their exact criteria for disabling trades. Trying to interpret whether or not a news event or current financial headlines will cause increased risk is always a bit subjective.

    Having said that, there seems to be some merit in disabling Megadroid from trading on FOMC days. FOMC is unique in that it’s the only scheduled US news event that occurs late in the US session (i.e. 14:15 EST), less than 2 hours before Megadroid starts trading. All other US news event occur at either 8:30 EST (NFP, CPI, GDP, Retail Sales), or at 10AM EST (ISM, Consumer Confidence), and so their impact is diluted by the time the Megadroid Session starts. And NFP always occurs on a Friday, so it won’t effect Megadroid.

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