HomeDaily ResultsMegadroid Results: Tues 16th Oct 2012


Megadroid Results: Tues 16th Oct 2012 — 20 Comments

  1. everytime spain does something it seems MD gets cautght. this time really really badly.
    why didnt they kick in remote safty mode?

  2. Hi everyone, I’ve been using MD myself since May 2011. It has been a slow but progressive journey making an average of 10 pip a month. But this year is not a very good year I guess, had terrible loss in April this year and this month is by far the worst. My account is currently running on net loss after this months bad performance anyone here has other EA to recommend?

    Any senior here willing to coach a noobie how to trade and make a decent living ? been trading myself but the result has not been too good either. Thank you

  3. My account 50% loss using on megadroid and pipjet….

    Starting capital USD 1k..I just bought this EA on this month..

    Time Lot Amount in USD
    2012.09.25 23:00 sell 0.33 0.00
    2012.09.27 00:00 sell 0.34 3.40
    2012.09.27 23:20 sell 0.16 6.53
    2012.09.27 23:20 sell 0.17 -3.47
    2012.10.02 23:20 sell 0.33 -76.95
    2012.10.04 00:56 sell 0.32 -128.00
    2012.10.08 23:02 sell 0.56 0.00
    2012.10.09 00:57 sell 0.56 11.46
    2012.10.10 00:58 sell 0.57 34.20
    2012.10.12 00:00 buy 0.56 22.89
    2012.10.15 23:00 sell 0.29 -156.02
    2012.10.15 23:00 sell 0.42 21.00
    2012.10.15 23:17 sell 0.14 -90.84
    2012.10.17 00:10 sell 0.46 -243.80
    2012.10.17 00:13 buy 0.14 7.10

  4. What a disaster… With Recovery mode = ON and a loss of -113 pips with FxPro, all profits Megadroid made since March 2011 has been erased…

  5. These losses aren’t much fun.

    This is the worst patch I’ve been through since June-July 2011.

    I’ll personally continue to trade. So for those people no longer trading, you’ll be able to follow the performance by watching my trades.

  6. Getting lots of EuroZone news announcements right in the middle of the Megadroid trading window (4-6PM EST). Has happened twice in the past week, and happened several times during the June/July 2011 period.

    Many of these unscheduled announcements are made just after the US markets close.

    Might be worth considering moving the trade window forward 2 hours i.e. 6 to 8PM EST.

  7. Problem is not in the losses, they are more or less in line with previous performance. Problem is in profits – MD doesn’t anymore generate enough profits. And this is already for months. I believe it lost its trading edge, lucky I quit permanently on previous lost trade.

    Richard, anyway thanks for your decision to continue and the site as a whole. My last advice for U is to establish “worst-case” borderline and put it writing here on site. In case MD reaches it – just stop and forgot about MD forever.

  8. According to my monte-carlo statistical calculations worst case for MD (when need to completely stop trading) with 0.05 risk, aggressive, no recovery, is either 37% drawdown or 6 consequtive losses, whichever happens first. This is double compared to what can be expected from its previous historical performance.

  9. Hi Serg,

    I guess the reality is all mechanical trading strategies/systems can fail at some point. The challenge is knowing when to stop and cut your losses. It’s a difficult decision.

    I agree, the issue is a lack of profits between the losing trades, rather than the losing trades themselves.

    In the past we used to get 40 to 80 pips per month profit from around 10-12 trades and have 60-70 pip losses every month or so. But now we’re getting the losing trades without much profit in between times, so the net result isn’t good.

    I’ve been trading forex for about 7 years. Over that time I’ve seen countless changes in the way the pairs move. The lack of volatility in the EURUSD pair just after the US session started about 6-8 months ago. Seems that it only moves significantly now if there’s a surprise news announcement, and then the move is so big that the stops often get hit.

    In general terms, when there’s a quirk in the market that can be exploited by a mechanical trading system, it usually doesn’t last forever. I remember trading the EUR/CHF using a scalper EA’s that was extremely profitable for a 12 month period, and then all of a sudden that price movement totally disappeared. The change was dramatic and it persisted.

  10. So, what does that mean for you, Richard? Do you think we may have come to the end of MD? How does one ever know? Apart from a wiped account there is always that annoying, un-scientific wishful thinking that it might get better again. Any thought on how one draws a line under it all?

  11. @Armin, it’s real simple. EA’s are still a trading plan, just automated. There is no true fire and forget EA or system. You as the trader must know when to stop the losses and determine when the system employed is no longer usable.

    For MD, that is now the case. The vendor now must admit that(they won’t).

    I’ve moved on since I have alot of money to recover.

    All traders need to take responsibility for the system’s running on their accounts.

    The disclaimers on every trading site are there for a reason.

    MD has run it’s course.

  12. Hi Armin,

    I don’t know. I was confronted with the same decision back in August 2011 after some heavy losses. Fortunately it recovered after the next 2-3 months, but nothing’s certain.

    I’m continuing at this stage.

  13. There is DECENT mathematical criteria when system stop working and it is pure statisctics:

    1) U make your estimations about EXPECTED or PLANNED performance based on backtesting and previous live performance, where U got basic parameters of the sytem like RiskToRewardRatio, MaximumDrawdown, MaxCohnsequtiveLosses, etc., etc.

    2) U make monte-carlo simulation with these parameters, meaning like just tossing coin with these probability parameters for some big number of itereations (e.g. 1 Mio). After U choose worst iteration results, which is your worst-case. If U want, U can multiply it by 2 to be absolutely sure.

    3) That’s it – if the system goes outside its expected trading parameters, that means that THEY ARE NO LONGER VALID with statistical prove of 0,001% for mistake (or whatever number of iterations U use). Meaning SYSTEM NO LONGER WORKS.

    Needs calculations, but than no double-guessing, no praying, no believing….

    My calculations for MD (0,05 risk, aggressive, no recovery) are max 37% drawdown or 6 consequtive losses, whichever of two comes first.

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