HomeDaily ResultsMegadroid Results: Wed 13th July 2011


Megadroid Results: Wed 13th July 2011 — 47 Comments

  1. I believe this threat by Moody caused it:


    Does anybody know how many pips profit the 2nd trade made on FinFX?


  2. At this stage my worse case scenario would be a full S2 loss, and a total loss of -110 to -130 pips depending on the account. Best case would be a loss of -40 to -60 pips overall if EUR/USD retraces.

    I was about 16 pips up this month, prior to today’s trade. So I’ll be somewhere between 50 and 110 pips down for the month after today.

  3. My Alpari, FxPro and FxSol accounts took a full hit. 170 pip loss which is the biggest loss I’ve ever had on one day. The previous record was about 130 pips back in June 2009.

    Fortunately 6 of my other accounts are doing better with around -46 pips closed, and a floating S2 position at -28 pips. With a bit of luck that S2 position will close at break-even and reduce my average loss.

    A pretty terrible day.

  4. :(:(:(:(:
    activtrades : -105.3 – 69.1 = -174.4 pips
    fx pro : -110.9 – 59.4 = -170.3 pips
    alpari : -111.3 – 63.9 = -175.2 pips
    finfx : 7.1 – 49.7 = -42.6 pips (one trade still open)

    it would be at least 5 months to recover that !!!! 🙁 🙁

  5. So any plan to take away the md from running live? I have given Md enough chance. I think I gonna stop it out for a few months and monitor it’s performance first.

  6. Albatore, I will advice u to stay oway from this bot. 1 or 2 more stop loss u will require years to gain back. Or u will never gain back using this bot anymore. Unless there is update of new version which could improve the stop out.

  7. I am giving up . All wipped out 🙁 .. Without any loss for next 5 Month could recover today but there is no chance of that as another Loss like this will take the rest .

  8. I’m going to continue on.

    IF this last trade closes out at break-even, I’ll be about 78 pips down on average across all of my accounts this month. That should be recoverable in about 2 months assuming no more losses.

    The only positive for me was that only 4 of my 10 accounts took the full loss, and so my average loss should be lower than it otherwise would have been.

    My previous worst daily loss was about 135 pips back in June 2009. I ended up recovering that after 2 months.

    This Moody’s announcement could have not been timed worse – unscheduled, and right in the middle of the 2 hour Megadroid trading session.

  9. since I started in November, all my account are now in red !

    FX PRO perso 57 trades 134.4
    Activtrades 47 trades 131.7
    Alpari UK 38 trades 147.7

    this was my results end of june before these SL.
    so it would take more than 2 months to recover from a 170 SL !
    after 8 months none of my account were having more than 130 pips ….
    the risk reward is really to poor … so I don’t know if I will pursue the adventure …

  10. Hi albatore,

    Yes, those sort of losses will take about 4 months to recover from unfortunately, assuming you’re trading the same lot size.

    It’s interesting to see how the performance at the various brokers has changed recently

    FxPro WAS the best performing of the brokers, but it’s had 4 full losses over the past 2 months which is extraordinary. It’s gone from best to worst.

    By contrast my MB Trading, GO markets, and Axitrader accounts haven’t been hit that hard over this difficult period. That’s why my average loss isn’t as bad as it could have been. Those better performing accounts have acted as a buffer.

  11. All my trades have finally closed now.

    6 accounts had a total loss of around 45 pips, and 4 accounts had a total loss of 170 pip. The difference was due to a S2 sell trade that closed out in profit on 6 accounts, but hit a 110 pip S/L on 4 accounts.

    Forex Megadroid S/L

    My average loss for the day is 90 pips. I was about 12 pips up for the month before this trade, so I’m now around 78 pips down for the month on average.

  12. I also used to use M/D about a year ago and also learnt the hard way over 2 years of using it . that you can not generate an income from this Robot, So I KNOW CALL it MEGA DISASTER!!!.

    Richard’s approach to using this Robot is very good he spreads his risk among a lot of brokers and uses good risk management by using a fixed lot size and is also a patient man :))

    I have learnt how to trade my self as this is what i wanted to do as living and the secret is the phyocolgy of your own mind.
    As it works well but everyone needs to find a style to suit their style and of course have capital which is not money that if you lose it you will be killed!!!

    I watch this site reguraly and Richard you do provide a good information and honesty on the positives and negatives of the MD.

    Best to all of you wish you lots of PIPS!!!


  13. Hi Asif,

    Thank you for those comments. That’s exactly the reason why I trade this robot the way I do i.e. spread the risk across brokers and use fixed lots to reduce the drawdown of any large single day loss.

    I had a similar large loss to this back in June 2009, and ever since then I started trading this robot with more conservative, consistent money management. I might miss out on any large growth spurts, but I’m happy to forgo that advantage so that I can contain any large drawdown should a disaster happen.

  14. Just looking through the results, it seems that the full 110 S/L trade occurred on those accounts where the S2 sell trade was opened just after 5PM EST. The accounts where the S2 trade was delayed a minute or 2, filled at a higher price and actually closed with about 15 pips profit when the EUR/USD retraced.

    So there was a very fine line between an overall loss of 45 pips and a loss of 170 pips.

  15. Hello,
    Very bad. I am glad that I stopped using MD at the end of june. So no losses for me. And I’m discovering that MD is manually operated and they have collaboration with brokers.

    I’m not sayin MD is good or bad, but just that it is operated manually and I’m sure about it. If you look certain trades, you can clearly see it. Yesterday the trade was closed on a big bullish spike but a new trade was opened when a new candle had formed. Now one might claim that it was due to higher volatility. Well I have also seen days with similiar volatility where MD did not trade. In short, another trade was simply made to make up for the losses of the first trade.

    And also the frequency at which MD is trading has increased considerably. It is definitely chasing pips after the losses it took in June. If anyone still believe it volatility and other reasons that is causing such trades, well then he must not be a good observer. Draw a graph of volatilty vs no of MD trades, you would see no clear relationship. But on the other hand draw the graph of MD’s losses vs number of trades, you find a very clear relationship.

    Once again, I am not judging MD but just that there is nothin special about this robot. If any would open trade during thos low liquidity hours and trade in any direction, with such huge stoploss, one would definitely have 90% + wining percentages.

    The bot is useful for people who do not have time, as such a strategy will make net profit at the end of the year. But risking more than 2% of equity on MD is really stupidity. One must consider 150-200 pip loss and then calculate risk percentage on MD.

    0.1 is very high setting. The cleverest way would be to do manual risk management and then set fixed lots. That’s the only way to go for me. I am just explaining my view and the strategy that I plan to use on MD.


  16. Funds withdrawn and account closed. IF I ever return to FOREX trading, it will be manual, not automated. There is NO WAY of making money without doing any work and to expect a £52 robot to make you £1000’s is just plain dreaming. The claims of 95%+ wins on the megadroid site are pure fabrication. Megadroid is fatally flawed in the fact that it’s wins are small and its loses huge, coupled with the fact that is says “upward impulse detected” and then shorts the market, is just unbelievelably stupid.

    I wish anybody still using this disaster all the luck in the world…because that is exactly what you will require.

    All the best, Raj

  17. MD works well under “normal” trading conditions (eg no news etc). The current volatility across world markets means that MD is likely to suffer with large + and – swings. My advice at present is either trade small or switch it off for a few months. I only recently switched MD back on after a break (aggressive- false) and bar a 110pip loss today had performed reasonably well (mainly due to my intervention – dis-abling MD at certain times). However I feel overall MD is too unreliable now and will return to stocks and shares! I may return to MD at a later time….
    Good Luck All.

  18. Hi jdog,

    I agree re volatility. There’s so many volatile economic issues at the moment – i.e. the forever unfolding problems in Europe, the US debt situation, plus the unexpected poor recent NFP number. The market’s very edgy.

    News events can really kill the Megadroid strategy, because it’s a range trading strategy, meaning it fades any price move in the “usually” quiet period between 4PM and 6PM EST.

    However, if there is a big unscheduled news event, like today, the news not only generates a breakout, but the move can be exaggerated because of the thin liquidity during this time of the day.

    Unfortunately, unless you’re glued to the monitors and news feeds while Megadroid is trading, there’s no way to avoid these situations.

  19. Richard, you are trading with MD for a long time. I expect that in last 2 years you encountered several volatile periods. What is your impression – is the current period different from those 2 years ago or maybe MD is getting outdated compared to trading methods in 2011.

  20. albatore, what was your entry for the 2nd MD trade on finfx? I had it at 1.42003 and closed it manually with +1 pip.

    the first trade opened 1.41559 and was closed with 68.6 pips loss.

  21. Richard,
    since you said that you optimize your lot size on the best accounts, I presume more of your lot size were on the accounts that hit the full SL. Indeed they were the best performing up to now … ?

  22. Hi albatore,

    I’ve been trading all my accounts with equal weighting for 1-2 months now, because I could see no clear-cut better performing brokers from my trade result.

    The current trading conditions are very volatile, and it seems the variation in trade performance I’m currently seeing between my accounts, is due to chance events rather than characteristics of a particular broker. For example, on this trading day, accounts that avoided the big losing S2 trade, placed their order 1-2 minutes latter than the accounts that incurred the full loss. It didn’t seem to be broker dependent either – some people trading at Alpari for example, got the full 110 pip S/L (like me!) whereas other people didn’t. Today’s variation in trade performance was more a function of volatility at the time, rather than broker characteristics in my view.

    So, while these volatile conditions continue, I’m going to continue even-weighting, because I think it’ll provide more protection. I’ll re-assess things in a few months based on my trade result data.

  23. Hi,

    Firstly, Thanks Richard for your websit about recording every trade at different MM.

    My opinion is that manually operating MD by myself is a good way for some cases.

    I got +13.4 pips at this time(my 2 trade just quit several hours ago) and +11.7pips in June(remember big lost at last month?).

    Since Nov,2010(got over -60pips big lost,remember?),I tried to find a way to avoid some situation for MD.

    MD sometiems can’t handle some situation esepcially higher volatility in Market,but We can!

  24. Hi buraan,

    “What is your impression – is the current period different from those 2 years ago or maybe MD is getting outdated compared to trading methods in 2011”

    Good question.

    I suppose the first point is that today’s trading loss of 170 pip on 4 of my accounts, is the biggest I’ve experienced since I started. My previous “record” was a 130 pip loss back in 2009.

    Because I trade with aggressive mode “on”, I’ve always been aware of the possibility of a S1 and S2 loss on the same day. Usually the S2 S/L’s are around 70-90 pips, but I think they’re based on the size of various candles, and unfortunately today’s S2 S/L was a huge one.

    When I look at today’s result, it is very clear why it happened. We had a major, unscheduled news announcement, right in the middle of our Megadroid trade window, causing a large move that was made worse by the thin volume. So I guess the next question is can this be avoided? Assuming we’re not-intervening, the simple answer is “no”. This is a risk that’s always been there. The only way to avoid it would have been if you were closely watching the charts, and news feeds, and had the knowledge to appreciate the significance of the event.

    This “news event” risk is not unique to Megadroid either. Any fully automated trading strategy can be adversely effected by an unscheduled major economic news announcement at the wrong time. It’s just an inherent risk of 100% automated trading.

    So has the trading strategy failed? In my view it’s too early to tell. My average loss over June and July is actually not too bad. June was -38 pips, and July is currently -78 pips. And prior to that I had several solid profit months, so I’m not at the “give up” stage yet. Assuming no more losses in July, I might be able to get the loss back under 50 pips by the end of July, and that’ll be recoverable in August. Once the volatily settles, I can’t see any reason why we can’t get months like March to May this year.

    My outlook is longer than most people I guess. I look at yearly returns, and I’m not too fussed about a few losing months, so long as the drawdowns are contained, and I’m up over a year. All strategies (and traders!) go through rough patches.

    So the final question is could Megadroid fail? Absolutely. Any trading strategy can work for a period of time and then fail. The challenge for me is to work out when to cut my losses if the strategy fails. Many people are of the view that the strategy has already failed, and have cut their losses. In my view it’s too early to tell, and so I’m continuing on as per usual at this stage. That might change in the future. We’ll just have to wait and see.

  25. Hi Jason,

    Interesting comments. Depending on time availability and your skill as a trader, I can definitely see the merit of combining Megadroid trades with your own trading decisions during this trade window. If a Megadroid trade failed, for example, that’s often a sign of a breakout, especially if it’s correlated with a news announcement. That situation is a trading opportunity for the prepared trader. Plus you have a fair idea of levels people are looking to exit their EUR/USD positions, and can plan accordingly.

    And your performance benchmark, would be how your results compare to running Megadroid in 100% automated mode.

  26. Hi Richard,

    I only intervene the trade if MD got a opposite trade.

    for example, MD made a trade like buy EURUSD, but then market change to upward impulse and over 30pips.

    For yesterday case, I did the below steps

    1) opposite trend happedned and over 30 pips,then stop MD and change to manual mode.

    2) judge the market, does the market really change the trend or just some unscheduled news? if the first happened just quit, if it’s the second one,then operate it.

    3) Made sell limit trades every 100pips(at least)

    I had two accounts at Alpari and Oanda(March,2011),untill now I never got a lost over 5 pips since Nov,2011 for MD.

    I can’t say I’ve already gotten a way to avoid big lost for MD, because it needs time to check at least 3 or 5 years.

    btw:Sorry for my English.

  27. Wrong year.

    I had two accounts at Alpari and Oanda(March,2011),untill now I never got a lost over 5 pips since Nov,2010 for MD.

  28. A complete disaster is how I define this session…

    I had 2 trades on Alpari UK classic:

    S2 Sell @ 1.41552 -61.6 pips
    S1 Sell @ 1.41667 -108.0 pips

    Really concerned about MD. It will take months to recover without doubling lots with Recovery Mode on… but if doubling lots wouldn’t I lose everything?? Specially after I’ve seem MD to risk more than I set… tough question for those who stay.

  29. Hi guys, I’m new here. Been following along for about 3 weeks and trading a demo account on Finfx. I think one thing we found out is that the Remote Safety Mode can’t react fast enough to help a sudden crash. I believe it’s applied manually by the Megadroid team, right?


  30. Hi Russ,

    The problem was that the Moody’s announcement was unscheduled, a surprise and occurred exactly at the wrong time for this strategy i.e. at 5PM EST which is in the middle of the Megadroid 2-hour trade window. So it couldn’t have been prevented.

    At best the losses could have been reduced if you manually intervened and closed at the right time. It’s easy to see where to exit in hindsight, but while the news event is unfolding making such decisions takes some skill.

    These surprise news announcements are just an inherent risk of fully automated trading.

  31. Do you know exactly when the announcement was made vs when the trade on Megadroid happened? I can see that if the announcement happened after the trade was in play, that the Remote Safety Mode probably wouldn’t help.

    My Finfx trade was at 23:49 and stopped out at 00:01 GMT


  32. Hi Russ,

    The large losing S2 trades were all placed seconds after the unscheduled Moody’s announcement, which occurred at 5PM EST.

    The “23:49” trade you’re referring too, was probably S1 trade i.e. a different trade. The S1 trade opened about 10-15 minutes before the 5PM EST news and stopped out on the news spike.

  33. 2011.07.13 23:49 sell 3.10 1.41556 2011.07.14 00:01 1.42163 -1 881.70 [sl]

    2011.07.14 00:01 sell 2.67 1.42009 2011.07.14 00:11 1.41861 395.16 [S2]

    These are the trades I had on Finfx


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