HomeDaily ResultsMegadroid Results: Thur 26th Apr 2012


Megadroid Results: Thur 26th Apr 2012 — 53 Comments

  1. IBFX AU I currently have an S1 and S2 long position open. Currently -25 pips. Hoping for a turnaround to break even, however the S&P downgrade of Spain has really hurt my account today.

  2. AlpariNZ
    Buy 1.32266 now -42.3 pips
    Buy 1.32184 now -34.1 pips

    Buy 1.3227 now -47 pips
    Buy 1.322 now -40 pips

    Buy 1.3226 now -42.9 pips
    Buy 1.31941 closed 1.31943 +0.2pips

    Looks as going to eat all profits since begining of the year if not closes on breakeven. And today is Friday, and trend looking downward…

    But lets wait, previous time those who have closed trades manually on similar ride got big losses, and those who keep in the end of the day have breakeven. Try to belive in software.

  3. @ross
    wish i had closed that S1 manually. it just hit a full SL at -60.6 pips 🙁
    that one trade has wiped off almost the entire years profits. 🙁 🙁

  4. Same here. S1 closed for -63 pips. Still have an open S2 currently -40 pips.

    Looks like MD will end up costing me about 20K today. Ouch.

  5. 2 trades @ FinFx

    trade1: -63.7 pips
    trade2: 0.4 pips

    well…at the moment it’s a very quit time with MD….and then a big…big lost..
    If MD isn’t going to be Wakeup….we neet a longlong very long time to recover I’m afraid!

  6. I’m in trades and I activ trade my first loss cash that night – 49 pips and a current of – 38 pips for now it really hurts the gains are very small but steady by catastrophic losses are against the stops are far.

    ( French )
    Je suis chez activ trades et j’encaisse ma première perte cette nuit de – 49 pips et une en cours de – 38 pips pour l’instant sa fait très mal les gains sont très petits mais régulier par contre les pertes sont catastrophiques les stops sont très loin .

  7. Just lost $500 on IBFX AU. Waited so long for a trade, and now this loss. Not a nice start- how long will this take to recover…

  8. Hi Peter,

    Initially I thought I only had one trade with a small profit. I didn’t realise there was a second trade opened that hit the stop loss. I only found out about 10 minutes ago.

    I’ve updated my trade results accordingly.

    Looks like the first trade (S2) was a small profit, but the second trade (S1) got a full loss.

    Sorry about the delay. I’ve been out for most of the day.

  9. FXDD -58.7 pips
    I didn’t have FinFX running thank God.

    I think with all the uncertainty in the eurozone at the moment perhaps this is not the time to trade MD.

  10. Hi Sandy,

    It’s hard to know why. I was actually trading the US session, and the market was very bullish headed into the close. After the close the stock futures dropped along with currency pairs that are roughly correlated such the EUR/USD.

  11. Here’s a chart of the Stock Futures and EURUSD (Blue line), showing what happened.

    As soon as the USD market closed (4PM EST) and Megardoid started trading, the stock futures tanked dragging EUR/USD and the other pairs along with it.

  12. I just started MD 1 week ago… 🙁 big big loss. Fortunately I trade fixed lots 0.4.. With autolots, it would have been 2 lots… MD sucks or what??

    1 closed -64 pips
    1 pending about -20 pips

  13. Note how tightly correlated the EUR/USD pair is to the stocks futures.

    We’re currently seeing a recovery in the futures headed into the US session, and the EUR/USD is going up with the move.

    Currently my open EUR/USD position is around -10 pips.

  14. Megadroid relies on tight ranges between 4PM and 6PM EST. If any shock news happens during that time, you usually get stop losses.

    I remember last July, Moody’s downgraded the US debt rating at 5PM EST right while Megadroid had a trade open! I got a full loss that day as well.

  15. All of my trades have closed now.

    I lost between 60 and 70 pips on 9 of my 10 accounts. The MB account avoided the large losing trade for some reason.

    Not a great day, but I’m glad the 2nd trade closed at around break even. It could have been a lot worse.

  16. Ikon S1 buy -61 pips Ouch!!!
    S2 buy 0 pips Whew!!!

    If the stop loss was 10 pips larger the trades would have broken even or gone into profit!

  17. FXDD – 2 trades -63.9 and +.2 for -63.7 total (plus -$5.03 to add insult to injury)
    IBFX – 2 trades -61.9 and +.2 for -61.7 total.

    These losses gives up all profits for 2012.

  18. Alpari UK classic

    S1 buy -61.7 pips
    S2 buy -11.6 pips

    Hopefully it will recover… but it will now take some months…..

  19. ATC -> -60 pips.
    Fxcbs -> -60 pips.
    Do not understand S&P Spain rating`s news influence on EURUSD prices.
    As I saw on S&P site, news about Spanish ratings were announced at 21:52 GMT.
    But this EURUSD fall begins at 20:56 GMT.
    Am I right about time of news annunciation?
    What could be a reason of such movement?

  20. So I was complaining that my MD only entered 2 trades this month for a total of -0.7 pips, and now this for a present at the end of the month! Maybe MD could release an explanation for the loss on their blog. I bet they are getting loads of mails right now from MD users.

  21. I do not understand how it works MD there are positions at times with a good gain which are not closed,and after much go in B.E.
    But then when he loses MD burns accounts i think you should review your EA
    so is losing …

  22. Hi, question please;..
    First of all why S2 I have -10 pips (fxprimus) and most have only 0 ?
    Also, now I lost these 2 trades, will MD enter in agressive mode with 0.8 lots instead of 0.4 ? Just one time or for a while? Thanks

  23. Looks like everyone took a hit. Again, this is trading ppl. All traders are subject to unexpected news releases and the S&P announcement wasn’t an any calendar that I found.

    One thing though. The EURUSD recovered nicely after MD’s S/L was breached.

    I don’t think the authors owe any one any explaination. You assume the risks of trading like any other person. They never promised no losses with the bot.

  24. Roger,

    Yes you are right in saying it may take a few months to recover, may be not.
    These large losses have also wiped out a few months of profit, definitely.
    Collectively that equates to maybe six months of no capital increase.
    Very hard to maintain confidence with a system which yields zero for six months. Easy for some to say look at long term, but who gets/wants to get paid once every 12 months = not many.

    average trade prof over last seven months = 4 pips. ( 33 pips per month avge )
    95% claimed success rate = 1 loss / 19 wins. OR 60 -70 pips loss / 76 pips prof.
    That leaves 6 – 16 pips profit about every 3 months based on MD claim of 95% success and historical average number of trades OR avge 2 – 5 pips per month when you factor in the loss size every 5% of the trade time.

    Most heart braking for such an acclaimed EA unlesswe get “lucky” and have a very, very long good run which is not good business and high risk optimism.

  25. For the annalysists’ trying to support optimism;

    You can look at all the reasons, charts, climate, cause and effect of losses you like but retrospective annalysis is useless unless a remedy/ammendment is applied to the system.
    Without applying change nothing is learned.
    We become masters of history and morons of future.
    It’s like sitting round and discussing the bullet hole in your chest – bit f****** late once you’ve already been shot !

  26. Loses are never fun, but they are just a part of trading.

    I think the important question to ask is whether the losses are within expectation for the strategy or whether they’ve increased to a point whether the strategy is no longer profitable.

    I’ve been trading Megadroid since April 2009. I’ve had many full losses over that time. My largest daily loss was 170 pips back in July 2011 (see Here), but I still managed to recover and ended the year in profit.

    On average I get a full loss every 1-2 months, but it does vary from month to month i.e. sometimes I don’t get a loss for 3 months, and at other times I get several losses in one month.

    This is why I personally take a 12 month outlook with this strategy. I assume I’ll have 2-4 loss months per year, but my goal is to be profitable over a 12 month period.

    Apart from one spurious loss on my GO Markets account, my last full loss occurred at the start of January i.e. about 4 months ago. So this is about the average. The problem right now is that the profit trades have dried up since January, but this has happened before as well, and could change soon.

  27. looks like the providers [eg alpari, finfx etc] may have figured out the ‘algorithm’ to megadroid and if so we should expect many more losses going forward…? search ‘virtual trader plug in’

    my email: fathanger@hotmail.com for comments

  28. Hi Vincent,

    There’s no doubt the MT4 market makers do manipulate prices to their benefit, using software like the virtual dealer plug. Forex.com were actually fined by the NFA for doing this.

    But with this trade, there was a huge move on the EUR/USD pair that was due to other factors i.e. Banks and institutional traders selling the EUR/USD for whatever reason. To get a move on EUR/USD like that requires 100’s of million of dollars. MT4 brokers are really just tiny players on the interbank market.

  29. Richard,
    I completely agree with you. Some brokers have indeed tried to squash MD performance( a testament to how well it works then) however last weeks event was the markets reaction to a news event in the most il-liquid time of the day. Us MD longs had no big bidders to protect our S/L, those orders were most likely pulled when the news came out.

    The fact that so many brokers were affected in exactly the same way is something all traders must consider.

    Keep in mind, the fact that we all entered trades in exactly the same time means the code did what it was supposed to do, the market did what will always do too. Be unpredictable.

    How fast MD recovers is still…determined by what the market does. Richards view is the same as mine, look at MD’s performance year over year, not month to month and barely quarter to quarter. This is long term robot.

    The EURUSD is in turmoil right now and if you have any money in this market, it would behoove you to study what’s going on and make your risk setting match what YOU see the market is doing.

    Remember the point to why you bought this EA. To remove the emotion from your trading and let the EA run.

    To those who want to or have pulled MD from your chart…you’re also taking a risk. By pulling the EA, you prevent it from performing a recovery plan from it’s loss.

    Forex is one of the hardest markets to trade. Anyone who tells you different is lying to you. We all will suffer losses. The point is to survive the losses until the market is favorable to your strategy then pull every pip you can.

  30. I have a question.. what is it about MD that makes it so popular?
    From the time I have had it, I’ve seen it make single digit worth of pips every month.
    and then gets hit with a huge loss like what we had last week..
    What is the rationale behind MD still having such a huge following?

    And should we be using recovery mode ?

    What are peoples recommended risk / lots per $1000 ?


    thanks 🙂

  31. @Daniel,
    MD’s popularity is due to it’s long term performance. There aren’t any other robots that have a public run of avg yearly 100% gains since 2009. MD is the only one that I know of.

    As you describe, MD will do like you said. That can happen with any trading system. The point is over the long term…years, how did the robot do? If you have been running MD for under a year starting this year then yes, you’re not having a good year. But if you started in 2010 or early 2011 or since inception of 2009, with the right broker you’re doing VERY well.

    This is a long term robot. Performance should be measured in 6 month to yearly periods. …Alot like equities(stocks)… I’m in my 6th month with MD and ForexScalpa and MD hasn’t done too good but Scalpa has been on a tear. I intend to continue with the current settings and allow MD to recover what it lost. I was in recovery mode when last week’s loss hit. That’s happened to me before and MD recovered it. That’s what’s important, can the system recover after a loss and continue the streak.

    Turning on recovery mode is your decision, if you’re new to the bot, enable it and see what happens. Accept the risk so you can learn how the bot performs.

    Always remember, the broker you use is critical. ECN/STP 5 digit brokers with low spreads are very favorable to MD. Look for fast trade fills with no re-qoutes and little to no slippage.

    Forex is about survival. Manage your risk…

  32. Like everyone, I also took a full size hit. Complaining is not going the gain the pips back. MD has suggested to increase the stop loss be 20-30%. This migh have worked for this time. But this will also increase the risk for every trade by that much.

    This makes me thinking if we should ask MD developer to automatically close the trades if there is an unexpected news that caused the trade go against for more than the targeted gain, lets say 10-12 pips negative?

    Please post your thought on this idea.


  33. @Jamie,
    Historically, MD will have no knowledge of a news event.

    As per their blog post, the strategy will be adjusted giving more room for s/l to account for the ‘distractors’ trades to be played out and the market returns to normalcy. At which point, it’ll close at B/E. The strat has signs of this as I’ve seen MD trades over -40 to -50 pips. The bot will stay in it and sure enough, when the EZ wakes up, the trade improves to B/E.

    Remember, this is about taking the emotion out of trading because we’re trading a plan regardless of what news or other information has come out.

    You can certainly close the trade out on your own. Consider the risk when doing so however.

    The remote safety setting is designed for the MD server to disable the bot on suspected negative trading news. The S&P announcement wasn’t on any calendar however the MD boys did say they will begin research on anticipating such news announcements.

    Failure is the best teacher…ask Thomas Edison.

  34. !! You’re crazy! I use MegaDroid in three brokers: Alpari Micro,Atc broker and Fxprimus. Another user named Vladimir uses working with a broker ecn (ATC boker) and never had problems running the expert. The day of the great loss I have lost a lot of pips! Think with three brokers … how many pips I lost!
    good luck

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